Запись эфира - 21.03

The host introduces the guest, Nikita Panmikita, greets the audience, and asks about their well-being and mood.

Recap of the previous broadcast and the happenings from the last meeting a month ago with Nikita. Also, a preview of what is to be discussed throughout the current broadcast.

Exploration of market expectations, digital assets, commodities, and global events impacting trading. The importance of understanding global events for market insights is highlighted.

Announcement of the awaited macro product presentation which Nikita has been involved with. Audience anticipation and engagement regarding the upcoming product reveal are mentioned.

Discussion on market trends, employment data, unemployment rates, and payroll figures. Analysis of how these factors influence market behaviors and expectations.

Explanation of how market data, especially employment and inflation figures, affect currency strength and market movements. The significance of interpreting and balancing various economic indicators is emphasized.

Highlighting the correlation between market indicators such as employment rates and inflation, and how these relationships impact currency valuation and market responses.

Discussion on market corrections, the strengthening of the dollar, and the impact on stock markets. The prediction and observation of market corrections and their consequences are discussed.

Anticipation of market corrections and their effects on different financial instruments such as oil, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. The flow of capital and market liquidity are key points of focus.

Analysis of recent market activities, capital outflows, reduced liquidity, and declining trading volumes. The impact on various assets and the overall market scenario is discussed.

Dya Pasha's silence led to uncertainty about the meeting outcome. Market dynamics play a crucial role in influencing upward trends. The discussion covered the market's initial predictions and the likelihood of unchanged rates.

The speaker elaborated on the rhetoric surrounding inflation, emphasizing the importance of understanding the terminology used by key figures. Different inflation metrics like CPI and PCE were explained, highlighting the factors influencing each and the significance of Core PCE as a key indicator.

A detailed comparison between CPI and PCE, focusing on the differences in calculation methods, components considered, and the impact on inflation measurements. The significance of Urban vs. Overall data and the role of various expenses in determining inflation were discussed.

Explanation of Core PC as an essential inflation indicator, excluding volatile components like food and energy prices. The speaker emphasized the importance of Core PC in analyzing inflation trends and how it aligns with the Federal Reserve's inflation targets.

Discussion on the median GDP growth forecast change from 1.4% to 2.1% in December, indicating a strong economy and market. Importance of monetary neutrality and the impact of mismatched production and monetary mass. Potential risks of overproduction leading to recession.

Explanation of the relationship between GDP growth, production, and monetary mass in economic stability. Discussion on the fear of inflation and the recent interest rate adjustments in major economies like Switzerland and the UK.

Analysis of inflation expectations and corrections in PCE inflation rate predictions. Discussion on the impact of unemployment levels on interest rate adjustments and the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding monetary policy.

Insights into the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, including the analysis of PCE inflation rates and GDP growth forecasts. Explanation of the delay in interest rate adjustments and potential impacts of political events on monetary policy decisions.

Discussion on interest rate projections and adjustments for the 24th and 25th years and the potential effects of delayed rate changes. Evaluation of the balance sheet reduction strategy and its implications on the economy.

Impact of elections on monetary policy decisions and the timing of interest rate adjustments. Explanation of the delayed effects of interest rate changes and the role of political factors in economic decision-making.

Analysis of the timing of monetary policy adjustments and the influence of election cycles on economic decisions. Explanation of the considerations behind interest rate changes and inflation management strategies.

Businesses feel the effects of economic decisions after a 12-16 month cycle. Changes in credit availability and job creation impact business operations and production.

Attacks on oil refineries have global consequences, affecting oil processing and supply. Excess crude oil becomes a challenge for countries, leading to discounted sales and market fluctuations.

The speaker discusses the speculation in oil and gold markets, emphasizing the trading of paper assets rather than physical commodities. The impact of local events on oil markets is minimal due to long-term contracts and hedging practices.

Discussion on the rebalancing of the market due to the strengthening of the dollar and weakening of the franc, leading to artificial weakening for rebalancing purposes.

Explanation of why prices fluctuate during news events, attributing it to market expectations and the rebalancing of prices based on these expectations.

Discussion on market dynamics, risk hedging, market selling pressures, and cascading liquidations influencing price volatility in the market.

Insights into interpreting fundamental aspects in trading, including the impact of news on price movements and the challenges of predicting market directions.

Insights from a top trader with a focus on understanding fundamental aspects to forecast trading activities and the importance of combining fundamental and technical analysis for successful trading.

Discussion on the impact of Boeing's aircraft issues on the aviation industry, leading to flight cancellations and delays affecting airlines and ticket prices.

Analysis of inflation factors, such as transportation costs and aviation industry disruptions, influencing inflation rates and economic consequences in the market.

Exploration of supply chain disruptions, Boeing's delivery problems, and the resulting impact on prices, demand, and inflation across different sectors.

Insights into changing retirement trends, investment behaviors, and the impact on inflation and financial markets due to passive investing and early retirement planning.

Discussion on the loss of purchasing power over time due to inflation and the need for mobilizing savings to invest and start businesses.

Explanation of how inflation is driven by consumer behavior, where increased money leads to more consumption, driving inflation and creating a cycle of money circulation.

Importance of healthy inflation in the economy to prevent hoarding of money, promote spending, and stimulate continuous economic growth.

Comparison of taxation on income from work versus passive income and the impact of taxes on economic behavior and incentives.

Discussion on people saving money versus investing it, the impact on inflation, and the behavior of individuals who accumulate wealth early.

The need for consumers to contribute to economic production, how excessive consumption can lead to economic adjustments, and the role of businesses and interest rates in stimulating production.

Discussion on how consumer behavior affects production levels, the need for matching production with consumption levels, and the role of money circulation in the economy.

Exploration of entrepreneurial enthusiasm, the drive for trading and business activities, and the significance of actively participating in the economy.

The shift from being a consumer to contributing to production in the economy, the importance of adding value through production, and the consequences of excessive consumption.

Discussion on managing savings, investments, and economic activities to avoid inflation and hoarding of idle money, emphasizing the need for active participation in economic growth.

Discussion on the potential economic impact of bankruptcy on banks and individuals, highlighting the risk posed by BankoPada and the percentage of loans that could be affected.

Exploration of potential bank losses and bailouts in case of defaults, with a focus on the implications for banks and individuals unable to repay their loans.

Analysis of the significance of a potential 40 billion loss for the banking sector, considering the distribution of credits among banks and the impact on the economy.

Discussion on the impact of bank bankruptcies on the economy, particularly the differentiation between large and small banks in potential losses and the broader economic implications.

Exploration of the role of investment banking as market makers and the importance of monitoring investment banking activities for insights into the market trends.

Analysis of current market trends, including bullish sentiments towards investment banking and the significance of investment banking activities in the stock market.

Insights into the Bitcoin market and the role of investment banking as market makers, highlighting their functions in transactions and market stabilization.

Discussion on the strategies employed by investment banks, such as unit redemption and creation, and their earnings from trading volumes and spreads in ETFs.

Overview of real estate investments, focusing on major companies like Oracle and American Tower, and the potential growth in the market sector.

Discussion on investments in data centers and the growing importance of artificial intelligence in data-related industries, with references to tech companies like NVIDIA.

Discussion about BlackRock's involvement in securitization and tokenization of real-world assets through the creation of investment funds and the use of tokens on platforms like secti.

Explanation of tokenization through an example involving BlackRock creating a fund for investing in digital assets, where tokens on the Ethereum blockchain are used to represent ownership in the fund.

Benefits of owning tokens and participating in staking, where token holders receive income based on the fund's investments in real-world assets.

Overview of BlackRock's investment strategy involving short-term operations, treasury bills, and cash investments using tokens on the blockchain to represent ownership of assets.

Explanation of how BlackRock's tokenized assets ecosystem works and the role of providers like coinbase, bitgo, and digit B in the buying and selling process of tokenized assets.

Предлагаются схемы и тестовые вопросы для закрепления знаний. Возможность ответить правильно на все вопросы есть неограниченное количество попыток. Возможность вернуться и переслушать материал во время теста.

Описание целевой аудитории курса. Подходит как для опытных трейдеров, которые желают понять фундаментальную часть торговли, так и для новичков, которые хотят изучить фундаментальный и технический анализ.

Обсуждение важности фундаментального анализа на высоких таймфреймах на рынке Форекс. Уточнение, что фундаментальный анализ внутри дня сложен и может быть непредсказуем, в отличие от технического анализа.

Отмечается важность и уважение к внутридневной торговле, а также упоминаются гении, способные анализировать графики и предсказывать движения на рынке.

Объяснение универсальности курса, подходящего для работы с новостями и предсказания движений на графике. Упоминание о возможности выбора направления курса: макроэкономика, фундаментал или монетаризм.

Обсуждение роли денег в торговле, включая анализ их ценности и механизм ценообразования. Указание на необходимость понимания денежной теории для успешной торговли.

Discussion on how a computer can distribute assets in a portfolio proportionally to risks, using examples of investing in gold and bitcoin.

Exploration of the modern portfolio theory, studying specific aspects of working with different markets like cryptocurrency, stock market, FX, and commodity market, including indicators, patterns, factors, and seasonality.

Understanding how to analyze news backgrounds for each market, market mechanisms, and the results of macroeconomic factors on different instruments.

Explanation of macroeconomic analysis, historical events' impact on markets, establishing cause-effect relationships, and analyzing market indicators.

Importance of fundamental analysis, including macroanalysis, market sectors, industry analysis, and individual asset analysis, emphasizing the need to comprehend market mechanisms and participant behaviors.

Discussion on trading strategies, emphasizing the significance of understanding market components, such as fundamentals, industry specifics, and market behaviors, to predict stock prices accurately.

Insights into analyzing the retail industry, understanding the impact of retail sales on economies, and the role of fundamental analytics in predicting stock movements.

Overview of the course structure, including tests, practical assignments, online sessions for Q&A, and practical application of acquired knowledge.

Explaining the two available packages with differences in content and duration. The pricing is described as democratic for the first launch, with a limitation of 150 spots available due to it being the initial launch of the product.

Discussion on trading strategies involving technical and fundamental analysis. Emphasis on the importance of understanding market mechanisms and the advantage of gaining new knowledge through the program.

Overview of the two-month educational program covering financial assets, market economics, regulatory aspects, and more. The significance of acquiring new knowledge and insights, especially in markets unfamiliar to many traders, is highlighted.

Speculations on the adoption of cryptocurrencies as commodities or securities, focusing on Ethereum's classification and potential challenges in regulatory acceptance for trading. Mention of new developments in the cryptocurrency market.

Discusses the fundamental news partnerships in Web3, regardless of the type of partnership or innovations in the Web3 sphere, such as new DeFi protocols launched and the volume on platforms like Uniswap and income. It emphasizes the ability to view the crypto market through the lens of capitalization and objective evaluation of assets.

Explores the concept of assessing the value of the cryptocurrency market in the long term, mentioning the importance of reevaluating market capitalization and the potential impact of regulations on projects' valuation.

Examines the XRP token forecast, highlighting the technology, market capitalization, and potential challenges, as well as discussing the strategy of holding onto assets for the long term.

Discusses the importance of profit fixation in crypto investments and the strategy of exiting the market during periods of volatility to secure profits, with a focus on risk management and market behavior.

Addresses the bond market inversions and their impact on risk assets, comparing the dynamics between short-term and long-term instruments in times of changing interest rates.

Analyzes the S&P 500 market trends, including the duration for surpassing key levels and the median forecast by various analysts, with a focus on retail sector reactions and market expectations.

Discussion on the market forecast for July-August, considering seasonality and monetary policy factors.

Expectations of a good correction within the year due to the absorption of funds in the stock market.

Explanation of how national debt affects the stock market, leading to reevaluation and inflows/outflows of capital.

Brief discussion on CBDC developments worldwide, including recent news related to Ukraine's stance on CBDC.

Explanation of how rising government debt influences monetary policy, leading to higher rates of monetary mission and inflation.

Factors affecting stock market quotes including company profitability, revenue, earnings, and stock performance.

Differentiating between fundamental and technical analysis in making market forecasts.

Discussion on market mechanisms, regulations, and the role of financial monitoring services.

Analysis of Bitcoin ETF trends, including inflows and outflows in the market.

Explanation of market reactions to capital flows, emphasizing the impact of market-making practices on asset management.

Overview of the diversity in the ETF market, highlighting the emergence of various ETFs and their market performance.

The speaker discusses the market trends related to Bitcoin and capitalization within the crypto sphere, highlighting the potential impact of various factors such as the involvement of institutional funds and government entities.

Predictions are made regarding the continuation of capitalization trends in spot Bitcoin investments, emphasizing the potential impact of institutional entities like Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and their influence on Bitcoin market dynamics.

Exploration of how institutional entities could affect the market by absorbing a significant portion of Bitcoin supply, leading to potential market shifts and implications for individual investors.

Comparison between Bitcoin, gold, and the dollar in terms of historical value, market dynamics, and inflation rates over time, providing insights into the evolving financial landscape.

Discussion on potential market corrections in Bitcoin prices and the implications of such corrections on alternate cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the need for strategic investment decisions amidst market volatilities.

Analysis of cash flow, liabilities, and investment strategies in the financial market to optimize profitability and sustainability, focusing on factors like internal rate of return and market share absorption.

Insights into market strategies, investments, and the importance of tracking market changes to adapt and remain competitive in the evolving financial landscape.

Predictions and discussions on the future of the crypto market, investment opportunities, and the significance of staying informed and adaptable to market dynamics for successful trading.

Exploration of cryptocurrency regulations, narratives, and the importance of understanding regulatory frameworks to navigate the crypto landscape effectively, with recommendations for staying informed through upcoming broadcasts.

Emphasis on the significance of fundamental and technical analysis in investment decisions, highlighting the need for a balanced approach and skill development in trading strategies for sustainable profitability.

Discussion on market insights, professional development, and the continuous learning process in trading and investment to remain competitive and adaptable in the financial industry.

Importance of market knowledge, adaptive strategies, and analyzing market indicators to make informed investment decisions, ensuring profitability and sustainability in trading endeavors.

Insights into market trends, investment opportunities, and the dynamic nature of the financial market, emphasizing the role of continuous learning and adaptation for successful trading ventures.

Discussion on strategic investment approaches, capital allocation, and market absorption dynamics, highlighting the need for proactive investment decisions and adaptability to market changes.

Exploration of financial market dynamics, capital deployment strategies, and the significance of market demand and asset capitalization for sustainable investment growth and profitability.

Importance of understanding market trends, decision-making processes, and aligning investment strategies with market dynamics for successful trading outcomes and long-term sustainability in investments.

Analysis of crypto market trends, investment opportunities, and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investments, focusing on the role of spot Bitcoin investments and institutional funds in the market.

Discussion on individual responsibility in investment directions, the importance of continuous learning and development in trading strategies, and the significance of adapting to market changes for sustained profitability.

Insights into trader development, market evolution, and the competitive landscape of trading, emphasizing the need for continuous skill enhancement, market awareness, and adaptation to ensure profitability and growth in trading endeavors.

Discussion on the importance of market analysis, including technical and fundamental aspects, to understand how the market works and who profits from it. Emphasizes the need to dedicate time to studying the market to identify profitable opportunities.

Explains the significance of fundamental analysis in Forex trading, particularly in macroeconomic indicators that influence the strengthening or weakening of currencies. Mentions the importance of understanding these indicators for making informed trading decisions.

Discussion on interpreting price movements in trading, focusing on identifying key levels, resistance, and support. Emphasizes the need to analyze the logic of buyers and sellers to make strategic trading decisions.

Encourages traders to combine technical and fundamental analysis in trading to gain a comprehensive understanding of the market. Highlights the importance of integrating both methods for successful trading on Forex.

Promotion announcement for a trading event starting on April 2nd, offering a discounted price for early registration. Encourages viewers to take advantage of the offer before the prices increase.